How Michelle Obama added $5B in market cap to apparel stocks – with David Yermack

David Yermack, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business, studied the first lady’s impact on apparel stocks for companies associated with outfits she wore.

The results are impressive: she added over $5B in equity value to those firms in aggregate and stocks typically went up almost 2% in the week following her appearance.

What does this have to say about celebrity endorsement of stocks and companies? I ask David about this and more on this week’s episode of Tradestreaming Radio.

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What are the best market indicators?

I’ve had a couple of readers write in recently asking what I think the best market indicators are.

It’s a hard question — I don’t think of them in terms of best or worst. More, there are useful indicators at different junctions in the market and really, they’re all part of an investor toolbox.

But, I wanted to ask you: what do you think are the best market indicators? What do you use to help forecast which way the market is headed?

To get the conversation started, I’ve included a list of market indicators — feel free to vote on what you like, dislike, or better, add your own.

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Why a stock’s ticker matters – with Vallapuzha Sandhya

future of financial services

How do investors discover what to buy? How do we find investment opportunities?

In Does Investor Attention Affect Stock Prices?, Researchers found that small cap stocks with ticker symbols similar to larger cap stocks went up in sympathy with their larger cap brothers. In fact, these attention portfolios saw 1-3% abnormal returns.

Pretty interesting, so I invited one of the authors of the study, Vallapuzha Sandhya onto Tradestreaming radio to discuss her findings with us.

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3 things investors can learn about risk from the U.S. Army

Major Hugh Jones is a professor of finance and economics at the United States Military Academy and has had two tours of duty in Iraq. He also has an MBA from Duke.

He spoke last year at the CARE conference (Center for Accounting Research and Education conference) about how the U.S. Army deals with high-stakes risk. The video below is his presentation at CARE (thanks to Professor Darren Roulstone for bubbling up  his speech!).

You can get slides of Major Jones’ presentation here [.pdf].

Here’s what investors can learn from how the U.S. Army deals with risk.

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6 easy ways to get more interested in investing

I live and breathe this investing stuff.

So, sometimes I take my insane fervor interest in investing for granted.

But a lot of people aren’t me (thankfully). Many are either too busy, too distracted, or uninterested in investing. That’s a shame — because outside of building your own wealth, there isn’t an easier way to protect your (small) fortune and grow it over time.

So, why are so many closed out of investing? Why do 40% of 18-30 year olds NEVER want to participate in the stock market??

That’s a post for another time. For now, I want to focus on how to get more interested in the stock market, assuming that’s a worthy goal (I think it is).

How do you create interest in something you aren’t quite interested in to begin with?

Here are 6 ways to get more interested in investing

1. Get seriously informed about the market: In 1921, Harry Kitson wrote a book he thought was destined to help college students improve their study habits. Nah, it’s really a book about the science (hey, it’s close to 100 years young) of learning. How to Use Your Mind addresses the hard question of finding inspiration in learning. For Kitson, people don’t generally start with inspiration about learning. It’s about perspiration — working hard to learn a bit about a subject. The passion soon follows. (Source: How to Use Your Mind)

2. Look deeper: So much of what we know about the stock market is through our perception and personal histories. Maybe our parents were involved or maybe they were disinterested. But to create true, motivated interest in a subject, it takes changing our mental image, looking at investing differently. My grandfather was a Buffett-like figure but the markets today would have completely confounded him. I know is sounds kind of Zen-y but, “If you’re really paying attention, you can always go deeper, continuously. If you do, new worlds open for you..”  (Source: Quora)

3. Think good thoughts about the market: Negativity totally breeds negativity. Sometimes that may be warranted but most of the time, it clouds our thinking. The best investors I’ve met are always objective about their investing approach. They don’t let bad decisions wrack them. They move on, learning from their mistakes. The market is a great teacher and it demands its participants visualize success. Learning with passion about the market requires:

  • OUR choice: we practice because we want to, not because we’re forced to
  • build success on success: find ways to have success, however small. The positive feedback loop is powerful.
  • purpose to practice: underscoring everything should be a strong feeling of personal purpose. Answer the question why investing matters to you, (Source: Steve Pavlina)

4. Find friends who like the market: Not only does this stimulate a desire to learn about and participate in the market, it may improve your results. All else equal, social households — those who interact with their neighbors, or who attend church — are more likely to invest in the stock market than non-social households. It even extends to where you live — people living in states where people are likely to invest are themselves more likely to invest. Mutual fund managers who live in the same state are also more likely to trade the same stocks. We’re social animals and we learn from our friends. Investing ideas and education spread epidemically. We’re influenced by others’ behavior. Want to learn more about investing? Surround yourself with people who do, too.  (Source: Social Interaction and Stock Market Participation)

5. Use resources at work to dive in to investing: Just like having neighbors you can shoot the sh*t with about stocks, the market, and investing, your work environment can impact your learning about the market. Sure enough, employers that offer seminars on investing find their employees more educated about investing and more likely to invest. (Source: The Effects of Financial Education in the Workplace)

6. Try some new tools: The finance industry is not your father’s finance industry. You don’t have to work with cigar-smoking old dudes who wear suspenders. Platforms like Betterment simplify investing and make it easier to focus on the important things. Others like Personal Capital make it easier to get professional investment advice online. SigFig, Jemstep, and FutureAdvisor help to find waste in your portfolios and optimize them for performance. There’s a renaissance of investing tools that can help.

Don’t feel bad if you’re not all that into the markets. That distance is actually a good thing — it can make you a smarter, more objective investor. But like everything worthwhile in life, investing is a lifelong process of learning: learning about your own behavior and others.

You can do it, Slugger.

Why risk is so hard to measure

Building on this theme of risk that’s capturing my attention as of late, I wanted to drill down a bit further into this discussion of risk.

One of the things I’ve discussed on my podcast has been how traditional tools used by financial advisors and RIAs aren’t sufficient to get a real handle on our risk.

Risk questionnaires, like the kinds Vanguard uses (one of the better ones by the way), don’t accurately capture our real relationship with risk. There are a variety of reasons why that’s the case but for this post, I wanted to focus on just one aspect of risk and that’s our inability to measure it.

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Investment risk: what is it and how a two-headed hyrdra monster can ruin your investment returns

Been talking to a lot of investing people about Risk recently: what it is, how to measure it, how to control it.

Why Risk matters

Risk is one of those things you don’t realize you have too much of until it’s too late. Being able to manage risk effectively is essential in the investment process.  Get it right and you hit your goals. Get it wrong and the potential for catastrophic losses is immense.

I don’t agree with the buy-and-holders who believe holding forever erases risk. Risk is always there, lurking around the corner.

There are huge issues and ones that many academics and entrepreneurs are beginning to tackle in meaningful ways. Imagine if we can get to a point where we can personalize risk — with financial advisors and with DIY investing tools.

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[free webinar] Insider trading strategies: how to follow the smart money

I’m hosting a webinar tomorrow on insider trading strategies — following the corporate insider smart money.

You’ll learn about:

  • recent Harvard research that shows a new insider trading strategy produces 10% of abnormal returns — per year
  • how to identify the smart insiders (versus other noisy trading)
  • the methods to create a portfolio that mimics some of the best
  • other ways to play insider trading (funds, ETFs)
  • the best online tools and resources to bubble up insider trading that really means something

Interested in attending?

>>>Sign up here<<<

Using Google to forecast an earnings pop (or plunk)

Google’s my friend.

Not only do I rely upon it for email, video, and of course, search, but I’m using it to invest  better and smarter (the Tradestreaming way, right?).

Let me explain:

One of my first podcasts on Tradestreaming Radio was with finance professor, Joey Engelberg. In How to use Google search data to invest, I asked Engelberg about a paper he had recently published that showed how useful Google could be in forecasting stock prices.

Using Google Search Data to Invest by tradestreaming

Specifically, Engelberg noticed:

  1. Google search volume likely measures the attention of retail investors
  2. and does so in a more timely fashion that existing proxies of investor attention

And of course, stock prices tend to follow attention.

So, an increase in Google search frequency (SVI) predicts higher prices in the next two weeks and also contributes to a large first-day return (and long-run underperformance) of IPO stocks.

Awesome stuff and after we spoke, Joey kind of went underground (he did leave UNC and headed for UCSD), using his research to make coin at a hedge fund. I spent a whole chapter in Tradestreaming (my book) describing co-lateral research — stuff that’s inherently non-financial in nature (Google search, Amazon ratings, etc) to help us make better investing choices.

Now a new paper shines light on how Google search reflects investor information demand and what that means for earnings news.

Continue reading “Using Google to forecast an earnings pop (or plunk)”

Sh*t investors say

I know, I know…It may be trite but I thought it would be a fun post to write.

Sh*t investors say

  1. “I want to turn $100k into $5 million”: Possible? Yes. Likely? No. It’s a real discussion going on on Quora now. The best way to grow a portfolio is by continuing to add to it (even better if your employer can match — that’s free money). To get 75% compounded returns, I personally like the answer to buy a $7 million life insurance policy and have an “accident”.
  2. “But Suze Orman says to…”: I hear this one a lot. It’s best not to have gurus. Not Suze. Not Dave. Not me. These guys are great to learn from. Go ahead and glean. The good ones are great teachers and offer great learning opportunities. But they’re out to build their own businesses. And as we’re learning in SuzeOrmanGate (my term), they’re liable to sell you stuff that’s just not good for you. I’m not picking on Orman — she’s done great things for people. But gurus are human and stumble sometimes.
  3. This investing stuff is easy”: No, it’s not. Sure, clicking buy or sell on your online trading account is pretty simple but the act of investing — planning, risk management, asset allocation — is hard. At least just for the fact that much of the process requires us to fight against our natural, human inclinations.
  4. “This strategy is a printing press — it always works”: Strategies work until they don’t. Many strategies, like my hedge fund piggybacking strategy, was developed by backtesting results. I don’t expect it to EVER work as well as the results because I designed it to maximum those results.
  5. “Well, Buffett owns it”: Hey, I’m a big fan of following the smart money. Heck, hedge fund replication strategies are built upon the idea that they know more than we do. But don’t ever confuse a single stock pick for an investment strategy. When Buffett buys something, it’s a piece of a larger pie, an additional piece in an investing puzzle known only to him. Beware of cherrypicking guru stock picks.
  6. “You should check out this hot little small cap I just bought. I’m up 100% already”: OK, tough guy. I’d like to see your cost basis on this one. Not that I accuse you of lying but people stretch the truth when talking about their winning ideas. They also don’t happen to mention the ones that they got wrong. Unless they’re audited results like Chris Camillo posted (he turned $20k into $2M — I guess they could be forged), take these claims with a very large bucket of salt.
  7. “You should really subscribe to this penny stock newsletter I get. Great info”: Investors — many smart, educated people — turn their brains off when they subscribe to free or premium newsletters. Many blindly swing at every pitch. The penny stock newsletters are published by stock manipulators. They get paid by large investors to prop up prices, so they can exit their positions. Many are compensated in stock, which incentivizes them to pump ’em up.
  8. “I’m out! This market is rigged.”: Well, it might be but it still plays by some rules. Insiders have always profited — leveling the playing field with REG FD (requiring public disclosures of important information) didn’t change that. But use the tilt in the field to your advantage. Mimic the insiders and create strategies that follow their trading. I just wrote a free ebook: The Harvard Guide to Insider Trading that describes this technique.
  9. “I don’t know what to do — my broker sucks a$$”: He might. Many do, but there are plenty of trustworthy good financial professionals (yes, even brokers) out there. They put their clients first not matter whether they have taken the fiduciary duty or not. But if you’ve had bad luck, keep looking. Try an online advisor like Covestor (I do freelancing work ) or Personal Capital. or Wealthfront (I’m a freelance writer).  Use Wikinvest portfolio tools (I’m an editorial contributor) or portfolio optimizer, Jemstep. I especially like what Hedgeable is doing. Don’t be complacent – there are new solutions out there that may just work better than the old ones.
  10. “My friends and I are getting into a small real estate deal. We’ll let you in if you behave.”: Sounds like an investment cult to me. If they’re really your friends, I’m not sure you’d have to beg to get into a small deal they’re putting together. Friends get burnt all the time by getting sucked into sucker deals. That doesn’t mean to take a pass on everything that comes your way but it does mean to be very, very, very, very, very picky about who and what you invest in.

photo by indi.ca