Coinbase is building on a dual-engine structure, but trading still sets the tone

    Coinbase has expanded beyond trading, but is still not the everything exchange it wants to be.


    Coinbase stepped into 2026 mid-evolution.

    It is no longer accurate to describe it as just a crypto exchange. That positioning misses what the company has been building over the last two years: subscriptions, custody services, stablecoin infrastructure, institutional products, and increasingly, regulated financial rails – all to capture a larger share of customers’ wallets.

    And while Coinbase has ambitions to move beyond its crypto identity into a broader financial services platform, it would be premature to call it a clean ‘transition story’ yet. Because even as that new layer grows, a previous layer still largely defines how the business behaves in real time.

    Q4 2025: A reminder that trading still defines the cycle

    Coinbase’s Q4 2025 earnings, released in February 2026, brought its evolving underlying business structure into clearer focus.


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    The cost of standing still: Why core banking modernization has become a competitive imperative

    The pressure on banks has always been structural. High operating costs, tight margins, and layered regulatory complexity have defined the industry for decades. What has changed is the pace at which technology is reshaping what banks can do, and how sharply the gap between leaders and laggards is widening.

    “For banks, technology is increasingly seen as a strategic enabler, underpinning trust, resilience, and growth,” says Will Moroney, Chief Revenue Officer at Temenos. Rather than focusing only on IT spend as a line item and the conversation is moving toward technology as a driver of competitive positioning. For many institutions, that shift in framing is itself the first challenge.

    The Technology Trends Redefining the Future of Banking report, produced by Temenos in collaboration with Bain & Company draws on industry research and insights from Temenos Value Benchmark data spanning more than 200 banks and 100,000 data points. Its assessment shows that banks that embed intelligence into a modern core are pulling ahead, while those running on legacy infrastructure are finding agility slow, change expensive, and innovation harder to deliver.

    Nearly a third of legacy banking applications lack comprehensive software documentation, creating hidden operational risk, and that’s before accounting for the data duplication and batch-processing limitations that constrain AI and analytics.

    Framing modernization as a phased journey

    Banks are moving away from “big bang” core replacements. Complete overhauls tend to be costly, high-risk programs. Instead, progressive modernization within a composable architecture  allows banks to upgrade components independently without destabilizing existing operations. . This approach is actually one of the top five predictors of the success of a modernization program, according to the report.

    Moroney’s client conversations reflect this trend. “We frame modernization as a phased journey,” he says. “Progressive modernization spreads investment over time, reduces risk, and delivers value earlier and more often.” Rather than a multi-year, all-or-nothing commitment, banks can prioritize higher-priority components, lending, payments, customer data, while leaving other systems unchanged until needed.

    The architectural underpinning matters here. A cloud-native, composable core enables incremental progress, providing the elasticity and integration capability to break apart monolithic legacy implementations without triggering system-wide disruption. Investment is also distributed more efficiently: as components go live sooner, ROI accelerates relative to a traditional replacement cycle. 

    The AI readiness gap is wider than banks would like to admit

    Generative and agentic AI represent a genuine step-change in what banking technology can do, but realizing that potential requires foundations that most institutions have not yet built. Banks  need strong data environments, before deploying these capabilities at scale.

    “The reality is most banks are still using fragmented legacy environments, so those foundations are only partly in place,” explains Maroney. The playbook, as he describes it, starts with modernizing the core platform and the data environment, and putting strong controls around how AI accesses information.

    The data challenge alone is significant. On average more than a fifth of bank data is duplicated, with banks in the bottom quartile seeing duplication rates above 52%, according to the report. That level of fragmentation raises costs, reduces accuracy, and limits the effectiveness of analytics and AI before either has even been deployed. 

    The regulatory dimension has a compounding effect, too. Banking operates with very low tolerance for errors, and every AI-driven decision must be both predictable and auditable. For Moroney, these requirements are the design parameters that shape how a responsible deployment is built.

    Shifting the board conversation from IT cost to business outcomes

    The way banks justify technology investment has changed meaningfully over the past two years. Boards and senior stakeholders are less receptive to infrastructure arguments and more focused on evidence of business impact. This is a direct response to competitive pressure, particularly from digital-native players who have demonstrated what a modern technology platform can deliver in terms of speed, personalization, and cost-to-serve, according to Moroney.

    “Trying to respond on platforms that weren’t designed for real-time decision-making or modern security standards only slows progress and drives up cost,” he says.

    Digital banks achieve significantly higher front-office productivity, with top-quartile institutions serving over 6,000 customers per front-office full time employee, compared to an average of around 4,300. For corporate banking, on average, only 13.8% of products are both originated and transacted digitally. The upside available to institutions that close that gap is considerable. 

    Data governance as a foundation for growth

    Data mesh architecture can be a key enabler of the “intelligent bank”: A decentralized but well-governed approach that keeps data clean, accessible, and compliant across all business lines rather than siloed within individual functions. This is where the link between modernization and revenue becomes most tangible.

    “Most banks still can’t get full value from data because it’s fragmented, hard to access, and often duplicated. The Temenos Value Benchmark puts duplicate data at about 21%; this raises cost and hurts accuracy. That makes it harder to use data for analytics, AI, or true personalization,” he says.

    The connection to revenue runs through hyper-personalization and cross-sell effectiveness. Average products-per-customer rate across retail banking sits at 2.59, a figure that represents significant headroom for banks that can use data to anticipate customer needs and surface relevant offers at the right moment. With propensity models identifying customers likely to disengage and next-best-interaction logic enabling proactive outreach, better data architecture translates directly into wallet share, retention, and cross-sell conversion. 

    The hidden cost of not modernizing, as Moroney frames it, is forfeiting these opportunities.

    Agentic AI and the shift from reactive to proactive compliance

    The payments and financial crime space offers one of the clearest illustrations of where AI is already delivering measurable impact, and where legacy infrastructure is most visibly straining. Payment volumes continue to grow, real-time transaction expectations are rising, and the compliance surface area is expanding accordingly.

    In watchlist screening, AI agents can assess and clear low-risk alerts automatically, freeing human investigators to focus on genuinely complex or high-risk cases. In payments processing, agents can detect and repair broken transactions in real time, reducing manual intervention and increasing throughput.

    “We’re already seeing this create real-world impact,” Moroney says, pointing to a production AI agent in financial crime mitigation delivering material reductions in false positives and significantly less manual investigation work. 

    The emphasis on production matters: banking’s risk-aversion in this space is entirely appropriate. “Banking has zero tolerance for hallucinations. The key is deploying AI safely, predictably, and auditably, with the right partners,” says Moroney. The goal is to modernize without introducing operational or regulatory exposure.

    The balance between the urgency of modernization and the discipline required to execute it responsibly is mission critical. The institutions getting it right are those treating technology as a long-term strategic asset, investing in the foundations before the capabilities, and measuring every step against the business outcomes that justify the journey.

    Can Robinhood build sustainable revenue streams that are not tied to how often people trade?

      Robinhood is trying to become a financial ecosystem – but the numbers still say ‘brokerage first.’


      Robinhood’s problem in 2026 is not growth. It is identity.

      The company is reporting strong earnings, expanding its product surface area, and pushing into credit cards, prediction markets, and even private-market exposure. But underneath that expansion, the numbers still point to a familiar core: Robinhood is fundamentally a stock market participation machine, a long way from a comprehensive financial ecosystem. 

      The gap between Robinhood’s ambition and revenue structure is where today’s story focuses.

      Q4 2025: Strong earnings, but still tied to market behavior

      In its recent Q4 2025 earnings, Robinhood posted:

      • Revenue: $1.28 billion, an increase of 27% YoY
      • Net income: $605 million, a 34% decline YoY, largely because Q4 2024 included one-off boosts (tax benefit and regulatory reversal) that inflated the comparison base
      • Adjusted EBITDA increased 24% YoY to $761 million

      Revenue strength was broad, but still uneven underneath:

      • Options revenue increased 41% YoY
      • Equities revenue increased 54% YoY
      • Crypto revenue declined 38% YoY

      The mix shows that Robinhood’s growth is still largely driven by market activity. Net interest income (NII) for Q4 2025 came in at $411 million (up 39% YoY) and continued to act as a stabilizer, but it was not the primary driver of overall growth.

      On the earnings call, CEO Vlad Tenev talked about the business in a way that sounds broad, but is actually quite specific in what it implies: he highlighted continued strength in trading activity and broad-based customer engagement across categories.

      The word ‘engagement’ is doing the heavy lifting here. In Robinhood’s model, engagement translates into active market participation, primarily through options and equities trading.

      Even as the company expands into new product categories, the revenue engine is still concentrated in one area: trading.

      The Expansion: More products, same underlying dependency


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      How Thread Bank is turning a century-old charter into a modern distribution engine

      The competitive landscape for US community banks is expanding beyond traditional boundaries. Fintechs and digital entrants, including a growing wave of foreign neobanks, are pursuing US charters to scale and strengthen their foothold in the region. Against this backdrop, the emerging question is: what it takes for a bank to scale in the US today – and still differentiate – in a market where innovation is easy to claim but regulatory credibility is hard to earn.

      Tennessee-based digital-first Thread Bank offers one lens into that reality. Its strategy sits at the intersection of embedded banking, deliberate scaling, and regulatory boundaries. The bank operates primarily through a partnership-driven embedded banking approach to expand its distribution and reach new clients.

      The anatomy of Thread Bank – From community bank to infrastructure layer

      The history: Thread Bank was founded on the foundation of Civis Bank, a community bank originally established in 1906 in Tennessee. A group of investors recapitalized the struggling Civis Bank in 2021 – a $90 million-asset institution – with an initial $47 million injection, ultimately building the platform to over $100 million in Tier 1 capital. It was then subsequently renamed and rebranded as Thread Bank in 2022 to focus on digital and embedded banking.

      Chris Black, CEO and President of Thread Bank

      “We combine more than a century of community banking heritage with modern, cloud-based infrastructure to provide full-suite digital banking capabilities,” says Chris Black, CEO and President of Thread Bank. “Together, these services transcend traditional geographic limitations while integrating seamlessly into our partners’ existing platforms.”

        …


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      Banks had an uneventful Q1, but competition for financial flows is heating up

        The banking system is stable, but the center of gravity is evolving.


        On paper, Q1 2026 was a relatively uneventful quarter for banks: consumer spending held steady, credit metrics remained resilient, and revenue growth largely met expectations.

        Wall Street players like J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo have spent the quarter tightening control over a different layer of the system: cash flow, payments, and the interfaces through which customers interact with money.

        J.P. Morgan is building tools to accelerate how money moves across its internal accounts. Citi is embedding money movement deeper into corporate workflows. Wells Fargo is leaning into AI-driven engagement to reduce the human cost behind each interaction.

        Here’s where the focus of their earnings conversations landed.

        J.P. Morgan Chase – Consumer banking as a bridge, now operating in motion

        J.P. Morgan’s consumer banking model is increasingly becoming a system that routes money, interprets behavior, and connects customers across financial products.

        In Q1 2026, the bank reported $16.5 billion in net income on $50.5 billion in revenue, with $2.6 trillion in average deposits and $1.5 trillion in loans. Card sales rose 9% year over year, while card net charge-offs improved to 3.47% from 3.58%.


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        Consumer banking is back in focus – and looks nothing like 2019

          Big banks are rebuilding consumer banking on their own terms.


          Leading US banks are overhauling their consumer banking businesses in varied ways. It’s not another wave of ‘banks go digital’ hype. It’s a realization that digital savings, consumer loans, and deposit chasing alone won’t unlock sustained engagement or profitability. They only work when they are connected to banks’ signature strengths: trust, scale, and financial relationships that compound over time.

          Consumer banking isn’t getting renewed attention now because banks have upgraded their tech. It’s because banks are rethinking consumer service, starting with where financial decisions actually happen, from deposits and everyday spending to savings goals, and using that as a springboard for advice, wealth, and capital allocation.

          To understand this shift, we look at the journeys of Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan Chase, and Bank of America, each leveraging everyday banking to drive customer engagement and funnel clients toward their lucrative wealth and advisory services.

          Goldman Sachs didn’t fail at consumer banking – it learned what actually works the hard way


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          For U.S. Bank, embedded finance was step one. The self-reinforcing model is step two.

          In January 2026, U.S. Bank announced the launch of a generative AI assistant on its developer portal to accelerate and improve partner API integrations. Just last week, the bank closed its deal for Amazon’s small-business credit card portfolio – viewed internally as both a portfolio expansion and a way to reach more SMBs. Around the same time, it also extended home-improvement loan terms in a calculated response to mounting affordability pressures.

          These actions show how the Minneapolis-based lender is reorganizing itself around a methodical strategy focused on how quickly it can integrate, how intelligently it can respond, and how deeply it can embed itself in the systems where financial decisions are made.

          In tandem, these moves form a closed-loop operating model where integration fuels usage, usage produces data, and that data perpetually refines products in near real time.

          Breaking the Code: Turning integration into distribution

          U.S. Bank rolled out its generative AI assistant for developers in October 2025, before formally surfacing it publicly in early 2026.

          This launch is the clearest entry point into the bank’s systematic plan. On the surface, the tool solves a familiar problem: APIs are powerful but often complex, and integration can take weeks or months depending on the use case. By guiding developers through implementation, troubleshooting errors, and recommending best practices, the AI assistant materially reduces that friction. The bank says the AI assistant can reduce API integration timelines by an average of weeks, helping partners go live faster.

          But the more important shift is not speed alone; it’s where distribution happens.

          In traditional banking, distribution is relationship-driven: sales teams, partnerships, and channel expansion determine adoption. In an API economy, distribution shifts upstream. The bank that is easiest to integrate can become the one most likely to be embedded by default. In that context, the developer portal acts as the front door to U.S. Bank’s embedded finance strategy.


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          The work beneath the work: How J.P. Morgan, BofA, U.S. Bank, and Citi are rebuilding their internal systems

            Where banks compete now isn’t what you see; it’s how they operate.


            Four major bank moves made the headlines this week: one aimed at small business, two centered on AI tools, and the other shutting down an acquisition rumor.

            In the broader view, these moves show the largest US banks are reorganizing around a narrative bigger than products or channels, pinpointing where value is generated now and measuring how far they are from controlling it internally.

            J.P. Morgan is scaling distribution, but calling it inclusion

            The development: J.P. Morgan has unveiled its new “American Dream Initiative,” targeting six focus areas with an early emphasis on small businesses. The program sets a measurable goal: expand support from 7 million to 10 million small businesses in the coming years, including nearly $80 billion in small business lending over the next decade.

            The bank also plans to grow its “Coaching for Impact” program, aiming to mentor roughly 115,000 small business owners across more than 80 cities over the next ten years. Additionally, J.P. Morgan intends to bolster its branch network with 1,000 additional small business bankers and double its senior business consultants to 150, signaling a major investment in hands-on support for entrepreneurs.

            The backstory and implications: The move carries a macroeconomic weight…


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            What a bank-client relationship looks like when banks control the data behind the UX

            The relationship between clients and banks has been structured around a destination model, where businesses log in, navigate dashboards, export data, and piece together insights.

            Grasshopper is working to dismantle that model.

            In August 2025, the digital bank launched its Model Context Protocol (MCP) server in partnership with enterprise-grade digital banking solutions provider Narmi to address a specific challenge: enabling clients to use modern AI tools with their financial data without compromising banking security and control standards.

            Nate Gruendemann, Director of Product at Grasshopper

            “We learned people were uploading their bank statements or transaction files to their [external] AI of choice to run AI-analysis on their finances,” says Nate Gruendemann, Director of Product at Grasshopper. “MCP technology is how we close that gap.”

            Technically, MCP sits between Grasshopper’s core banking systems and external AI models, managing authentication, permissions, and data structuring before any client-specific bank data reaches the AI model (e.g., Claude or ChatGPT). 

            “In practice, this allows us to expose meaningful financial context while keeping the core banking system insulated,” notes Gruendemann.

            But the key design choice lies in what MCP doesn’t allow. The system is built on the assumption that AI models are untrusted environments. MCP is fully opt-in, which means clients must authorize Claude or ChatGPT and authenticate with their banking credentials. The server can see only the data the user is permitted to access, and the entire system is currently read-only. This means AI tools and platforms can analyze information, but cannot act on it independently. For example, they cannot initiate transactions or modify account data.

            “We secure the banking infrastructure and access layer, while clients maintain control over how they use their chosen AI tools,” adds Gruendemann.

            This indicates Grasshopper isn’t focused on owning the user experience, but on controlling the underlying data layer that powers it.

            The rationale behind building a user-facing layer outside the core banking system

              …


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            PayPal doesn’t have a growth problem – it has a positioning problem

              And the market is no longer willing to wait for it to figure that out…


              For a company that helped define digital payments, PayPal now finds itself in a new reality: ubiquity no longer guarantees relevance at the checkout moment. The market has moved on from asking whether PayPal can grow. The pressing questions now are: Where does PayPal actually sit in the payments ecosystem, and does that position still command value? What role does PayPal actually play in a payments stack that no longer needs a middle layer?

              The cumulative numbers don’t look broken on paper. That’s what makes it harder.

              PayPal’s earnings for Q4 2025, which ended December 31, 2025, show a company that grew – but not where it counts. Net revenues increased 4% to $8.7 billion, below Wall Street expectations, while total payment volume (TPV) climbed 9% to $475.1 billion. Active accounts ticked up only 1.1% to about 439 million.

              The crux, and the part that roiled markets, however, was branded checkout volume, the segment that carries the highest take rate and has historically driven both conversion and margin. In Q4, branded checkout grew only 1% year‑over‑year, barely a heartbeat ahead of stagnation and well below analysts’ expectations of roughly 2–3% growth for PayPal’s premium commerce driver. Whereas, lower-margin Braintree (unbranded processing) continued to expand. Jamie Miller, Interim CEO at the time, noted on the Q4 earnings call, “We are seeing strong growth in unbranded processing… but branded checkout remains a key focus area for us.”

              Basically, the engine that scales isn’t the engine that monetizes. 


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