Investing: Being in it to win it

We’re looking at new schools for my soon-to-be high schooler son.

As parents, we’ve made so many mistakes, learning and futzing things up as we go.

I’m not the same parent as I was 13 years ago.

Investing as learning process

investors get better by learning

Investing isn’t an activity — it’s a process.

Tradestreaming is all about learning from  — and sharing — what we’ve experienced.

From my interview earlier this week with Jonathan Clements (author of The Little Book of Main Street Money and previously the personal finance columnist for the Wall Street Journal)):

A lot of what it takes to become a good investor and a good manager of your money is just time.  Think about people’s learning curve — in some sense we don’t really get an opportunity to become experts in money management unless we really put our minds to it.  Most of us will only buy 2 or 3 or 4 homes during the course of our lives — we never really get the chance to become experts at that.  So, there’s a good chance that we’re going to mess up.

Similarly, we only get to claim Social Security once, so in terms of when to claim Social Security, there’s a good chance, we’re going to mess up royally.

And similarly when it comes to investing, yeah, we’re going to get the chance to see a lot more bull and bear markets than we would opportunities to buy homes.  Nonetheless, the chance to mess up is enormous in part because people have to cope with all this noise.

4 ways to accelerate your investment experience

  1. Nothing beats experience like experience: you just have to be in it to win it.  That means ensuring your take adequate precautions to maintain your ability to stay invested.  The research shows it’s not about age, it’s about experience and time in the market.
  2. Log your experiences: Keep a trading diary.  Better yet, blog about what you’re doing, sharing your activities with others on Seeking Alpha or on  StockTwits. You’ll get feedback from others — helping to expedite your learning and climbing the learning curve.
  3. Plug into the tradestream: Use the Internet, the blogosphere, and twitter to identify top performers interested in sharing their knowledge.  If you’re interested in making sure results are what they claim to be, follow top performers on Covestor who have agreed to have their performance audited.
  4. Listen/watch the best investing podcasts: I’ve compiled a list of what I think are the best investing podcasts on iTunes.  But there are many more great ones.  I interview a lot of these experts on Tradestreaming Radio, too.  StockTwits TV in general and Abnormal Returns TV (from Abnormal Returns) are also great for access to true experts in their domains.

I’m sending my kid to high school.  Like James Altucher, I don’t know if I’ll send him to college.  There is so much information readily available to investors, you can get a degree in hard knocks if your’re diligent and interested.

You just have to plug into the Tradestream.

Tradestreaming Cascade for the Week ending May 1, 2011

A new addition to Tradestreaming, the Tradestreaming Cascade is a highlight reel of some of the past week’s most interesting information. Much of this comes from my Twitter feed, @newrulesinvest

Research update: Activist Investing (The Activist Investor): More research into the value extracted by activist investors — this time looking at shareholder proposals and voting.

The art of investing in today’s economy (Tradestreaming): New podcast with the former personal finance columnist for the WSJ, Jonathan Clements.

Favorite Boutique Asset Managers Launch New Funds (Morningstar): Ariel, Fairholme, Royce, FMI among the firms launching new mutual funds with interesting strategies.

May 3rd poorest performing month in pre-election years (Stock Trader’s Alamanac): A hypothetical $10k investment in the DJIA for November-April would have compounded to over $500k (1986 – present) while May-October would have resulted in a $379 loss.

Sectorology: How the financial sector stacks up against other industries (Random Roger): Interesting view on short-term, long-term investing in financial stocks.

The predictive power of the combo of Morningstar stars, expenses, investor returns, manager records and active share (Morningstar): More Morningstar research on how best to use their information for profitable investing.

Online brokerage no threat to advisors? Yeah, and I’m a meat-eating rabbit (New Rules of Investing): Redefining the role of brokerage and advice in the age of social media.

Tradestreaming Cascade: Top links from the week ending 4/24/2011

A new addition to Tradestreaming, the Tradestreaming Cascade is a highlight reel of some of the past week’s most interesting information. Much of this comes from my Twitter feed, @newrulesinvest.

The Wizard of Lies: Bernie Madoff and the Death of Trust just came out. Looking forward to reading it.

Comparison of 4 commission free ETF portfolios for less than 20 bps (World Beta)

Introducing the most powerful (premium) stock charts (Ycharts)

PIMCO files for ETF version of Bill Gross’ Total Return Fund (SEC)

Ameriprise gets into the ETF game by buying Grail (ETFdb)

Geezeo launches referral engine to help financial institutions cross-sell (Finextra)

Who is the top stock picker of the decade? (InvestmentNews)

Up-beat note for company-sponsored equity research (Integrity Research)

MarketPysch: Profiting from investor psychology and the Internet (podcast)

On Tradestreaming Radio, we’re interviewing lots of innovative entrepreneurs, investors, and researchers all trying to make investors better at what they do.  Check out our archives.  Subscribe on iTunes.

From this perch, it seems like investors are witnessing a Renaissance of tools, data, and research that overlays investor psychology on 24/7 streaming content of the Internet.

The magic bullet for individual investors and hedge funds alike is to use this data to create profitable trading strategies.  Previous podcasts have looked at using Google search data to find rising stocks.  Other tradestreaming techniques have centered around creating forecasts of future events using online media.

This week’s guest on Tradestreaming Radio is Richard Peterson, MD (yes, that kind of doctor).  He’s also an RIA and his firm, MarketPsych LLC helps to coach investors and their advisors into making better investment decisions.  More interesting, the firm has developed a sentiment analysis engine from its own experience trading quantitative strategies in an in-house hedge fund.

Dr. Peterson’s new book, MarketPsych: How to Manage Fear and Build Your Investor Identity (Amazon link) is an amazingly refreshing read.  All investors struggle with assessing their risk tolerance, performance and decision making.  While behavioral economics/finance has helped us understand what problems we face, it hasn’t helped a whole lot in truly helping us change our investing behavior. MarketPsych provides a clear overview of the problems and gets its hands dirty helping us investors help ourselves.

In the podcast, we talk about:

  • how investors make decisions
  • how investors can use changes in sentiment to forecast stock price movements
  • how hedge funds use investor psychology and Internet content/social media to profit
  • how technology innovation leads to higher stock prices.

Listen to the whole program

More Resources

 

How to use Google search data to invest (transcript)

This transcript is of a conversation I had with Dr Joey Engelberg, Professor of Finance at the University of North Carolina’s Kenan-Flagler Business School  (listen to the podcast). You can always subscribe to Tradestreaming Radio on iTunes.

In my book, Tradestreaming and on my website, I talk a lot about what I call collateral research. This is information that’s inherently non-financial in nature, but that investors are using to aid in their investment decisions.

Using Google Search Data to Invest by tradestreaming

One example I talk about in the book specifically is Amazon sales data. You can go onto Amazon.com, look up best selling computers, and you can get a list at that moment in time, updated hourly, of what’s selling well. So, if you were an investor in Apple, and Apple was introducing a new product to the market, that information, although it doesn’t say specific sales numbers, of what Apple itself is seeing through selling on Amazon, that information is at least important in the sense of how well a product may be received into the market.

Another area of concern for investors, of interest, is Google search data. Google recognizes that itself, and launched about two years ago on Google Finance something called Google domestic search trends, GDST. That’s a mouthful. What that is basically is Google itself is looking at a vertical search, something about the auto industry, unemployment, something where there are a series of search terms around a particular category, and then mapping them against the volume of other search queries.

So, you can get a feel for, qualitatively, how a certain search term or industry is trending vis a vis the rest of the search market. You can then overlay that information on top of an ETF or a mutual fund that may track that industry, and you can get a view for how well some of that data may, or may not influence future price movements.

Today’s guest on the podcast is Joey Engelberg, who studied this actually quite intensely. He’s a Professor of Finance at the University of North Carolina, the Kenan-Flagler Business School. He previously worked at the SEC, as a research specialist.

He recently produced a paper that caught my eye, called In Search of Attention. That basically looks at Google search data and tries to map it to future price movements. He actually did find a correlation that certain abnormal trends in search data can lead to abnormal returns in the stock market.

Continue reading “How to use Google search data to invest (transcript)”

Tradestreaming Cascade (Week ending 3/26/2011)

A new addition to Tradestreaming, the Tradestreaming Cascade is a highlight reel of some of the past week’s most interesting information.  Much of this comes from my Twitter feed, @newrulesinvest.

How financial blogging landed me a book deal (New Rules of Investing): Blogging is hard to monetize.  Here’s one way financial bloggers can begin to build businesses off their work.

Why investors overpay for certain investments (The Economist): Liquidity and lottery tickets and why the carry trade fails at the wrong time and just below investment grade corporate bonds perform best. From Expected Returns: An investor’s guide to harvesting market rewards.

Trades busted in new FocusShares ETFs (ETF Trends): Scottrade’s new ETF line, Focus Shares, had multiple trades busted.  Some shares saw a 98% drop as Nasdaq canceled them.

Wealth managers refine niche marketing techniques (Registered Rep) : Growing reliance on segmentation of new business development by wealth managers.  This time, Indian Americans.

Investing as a form of peer pressure: teaching kids to invest young (MarketPsych): In an interview with Tile Financial, this money manager/sentiment data player digs deeper to help understand kids’ motivation to invest.

10 most tracked funds, fund groups and stocks (AlphaClone): Most popularly followed hedge funds and stocks held by these hedge funds as tracked by piggyback investment research powerhouse, AlphaClone.

Signup here to receive real-time updates from Tradestreaming.

 

How your money is managed: the Mutual Fund industry up close (transcript)

This transcript is of a conversation I had with Theresa Hamacher (listen to the podcast), author of the new book,  The Fund Industry: How your Money is Managed. You can always subscribe to Tradestreaming Radio on iTunes.

Today’s episode is all about mutual funds, the product and the industry. As a guest on the program we have Theresa Hamacher, a co-author of the new book, The Fund Industry: How Your Money is Managed. She co-wrote the book along with Robert Pozen. Hamacher is currently the president at NICSA, a position that she’s held since March of 2008. For those of you who don’t know, NICSA is the National Investment Community Service Association, which bills itself as the leading provider of independent education and networking forums to professionals in the global investment management community.

Mutual Funds: How your $$ is managed by tradestreaming

Theresa had her background in investment management before that. She was the chief investment officer, CIO, for Pioneer, where she oversaw $15 billion in global equity in fixed income assets. Before that she was the CIO of Prudential Mutual Funds, where she supervised over $60 billion dollars in assets. Earlier in her career she was an equity fund manager. She began her career as a securities analyst.

Clearly the book is written from Hamacher’s extensive experience and perspective within the mutual fund industry. I do broaden the conversation to try to incorporate how the mutual fund industry is coping with new product innovation in the ETF, the exchange traded fund community.

I think talking about mutual funds is an interesting topic right now. They are a well designed product for a variety of situations. There seems to be an overriding mantra that sort of was born out of do it yourself investing that somehow mutual funds are inherently bad. I don’t see things that way. They have their time and their place. They’re particularly good products for scenarios where it doesn’t necessarily make sense to have an index product.

Exchange traded funds are obviously the fastest growing security, in terms of gaining new assets within the industry. It’s also interesting to me that mutual funds view exchange traded funds as competitors, and not necessarily as just new products, or innovative products in the industry.

I ask Hamacher a lot of these questions, but one thing that’s important to me is that when I speak to investors they say first thing, “Mutual funds are bad.” They have a connotation obviously, particularly ones that are sold with the sales load of being expensive, and that’s true. Continue reading “How your money is managed: the Mutual Fund industry up close (transcript)”

StockTwits growing, hiring, and portalizing

Realtime platform for stock traders to share info, StockTwits has just hired David Putnam, previously head of 800lb gorilla that is Yahoo Finance.  Howard Lindzon’s firm continues to just chug along, growing traffic, rolling out products and now, recruiting seriously for growth.

According to TechCrunch:

According to Quantcast, 465,000 people are now visiting the site per month, which means the company has more than doubled its visitors since early December, when less than 200,000 were checking in to share and trade. This seems largely due to the service’s continuing evolution beyond its TweetDeck roots and creation of its own true investor ecosystem chalk full of video, news and charts — all enabled by an AIR app.

StockTwits has been pushing on a couple of fronts which should interest investors:

  1. investor relations: The firm is serious about attracting IR business, announcing the hiring of Chris Bullock as VP of Corporate Services.
  2. monetization engine: Watching the evolution of Seeking Alpha’s App Store closely, ST has rolled out its own marketplace for data products.
  3. portalize: This is something Putnam knows well from Yahoo but Yahoo made a massive site on curating essential information investors need.  ST is growing traffic by syndicating its own content.  Look for ST to become more of a destination site investor head to for more of the investment/research process.

Source:

StockTwits continues to expand, steals VP David Putnam from Yahoo Finance (TechCrunch)

How to use Google search data to invest (podcast)

tradestream radio, discussing investing and technology

In my book, Tradestream, I talk a lot about what I call “Co-lateral Research”.  This is information inherently non-financial in its nature that investors can use to make better investment decisions.

Take Amazon Sales Ranking, for example.  Amazon provides almost real-time ranking of its best selling items.  While Amazon won’t reveal exactly how many units of Apple’s ($AAPL) iPad it’s selling, investors can get a qualitative feel for how well products are moving.

Summary

UNC Professor Joey Engelberg has been studying another form of co-lateral research, Google search data.  He’s been studying search trends for stocks (ie $PCLN or $NFLX) as a way to measure investor attention.  Prof Engelberg has found a linkage between changes in search volume and subsequent moves in stock prices.  He joins us for this installment of Tradestreaming Radio.

We discuss

  • which particular stocks investors pay attention do during the trading day
  • the demand side of news and information for stocks
  • how Google search volume is correlated to stock pricing
  • a trading strategy that uses search volume to beat the market

Listen below

Resources: