Research: How popular does Apple Card need to be to generate $1 billion in revenue?

Apple Card may well turn out to be very popular as a financial product. But until it hits $1 billion in revenue, it’s just a blip for Apple. That’s because of the sheer size of the company. Many equity analysts wouldn’t consider Apple Card to be material to the company until it hits $1 billion in revs.

Here’s what would need to happen for Apple Card to hit those numbers. We also looked at

Is this possible? Does Apple see a realistic path to $1 billion over the next few years? To start, Apple Card enters a market where customer switching new primary credit cards is at a historical low.

But of course, Apple isn’t starting from scratch. It has a good start with over 900 million active iPhones in circulation. Apple Card’s management team’s strategy is to put Card in as many iPhone owners hands as possible, even if it means Goldman Sachs approves subprime customers.

To put things in perspective, there are about as many active iPhones as there are Visa cards there are in the world. Launching into an installed base like this is likely unprecedented.