Forecasting the financial weather and why so many get it wrong

Newspapers, magazine, bloggers — the financial press — get up every morning of every day (yeah, I’ll include weekends) to try and figure out what the future has in store for investors.

The investing weathermen

When my kids ask me what I do, I tell ’em and receive comments like “Why can’t you run a supermarket?” They understand inventory and selling products. They don’t understand investing and why it’s so hard to predict what the future has in store for markets and individual assets.

I frequently come back to the question and tell them that I’m like a financial weatherman, trying to determine what type of economic weather we’ll have next week, next month and next year.

They sort of get it and at least their eyes stop glazing over.

But, it’s an interesting metaphor — investing and weather forecasting.

Like meteorology (another famously frustrating trade), forecasting the markets, the unknown is tricky.

But unlike the investing field — which keeps reams of historical data for comfort and scientific value, you’ll be surprised to know that until relatively recently, meteorologists didn’t even keep historical data.

Eric Floehr monitors weather forecasts for a living. Here’s what he had to say about when he started researching the accuracy of weather forecasters:

I have this data back to 2004. It’s funny, but most weather forecasting companies historically have not kept their forecasts. Their bread-and-butter is the forecast in the future. Once that future becomes the past, they saw no value in that data until recently.

For weathermen, what matters is uncertainty. Outside of taking a cruise during a typhoon or getting rained out of a golf match, getting the weather wrong doesn’t really impact my life ALL that much.

Unlike investing where bad bets can be ruinous.

Time and uncertainty

As I wrote about measuring investment risk, risk is more than just uncertainty. When we invest and make decisions based upon an unknown future, we also have to factor in what would happen if we get it wrong.

That’s the difference between losing some short-term money and having to push off retirement for many years.

Part of our struggle with getting our hands around risk is our relationship with time. It’s easy to plan for tomorrow, which is why accuracy for The Weather Channel is MUCH higher in predicting the following day’s weather than it is for the 7-10 day forecast).

Time and risk are two sides of the same coin:

Time is the dominant factor in gambling. Risk and time are opposite sides of the same coin, for if there were no tomorrow there would be no risk. Time transforms risk, and the nature of risk is shaped by the time horizon: the future is the playing field.

Peter L. Bernstein. Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk (Kindle Locations 187-189).

Investing is a very complicated game. At risk is our future but the future defines how much risk we’re going to take on today.

So-called financial experts are merely signposts along the way, providing frequently misleading and oftentimes, wrong advice on how to navigate through the uncertainty.

Understanding risk — and really, it’s about personalizing risk (my risk is different than your risk for the same time frame) — means understanding that the future is the playing field of risk. Most of the bloggers and financial media are just noise along the way.

picture by salin1

Using Google to forecast an earnings pop (or plunk)

Google’s my friend.

Not only do I rely upon it for email, video, and of course, search, but I’m using it to invest  better and smarter (the Tradestreaming way, right?).

Let me explain:

One of my first podcasts on Tradestreaming Radio was with finance professor, Joey Engelberg. In How to use Google search data to invest, I asked Engelberg about a paper he had recently published that showed how useful Google could be in forecasting stock prices.

Using Google Search Data to Invest by tradestreaming

Specifically, Engelberg noticed:

  1. Google search volume likely measures the attention of retail investors
  2. and does so in a more timely fashion that existing proxies of investor attention

And of course, stock prices tend to follow attention.

So, an increase in Google search frequency (SVI) predicts higher prices in the next two weeks and also contributes to a large first-day return (and long-run underperformance) of IPO stocks.

Awesome stuff and after we spoke, Joey kind of went underground (he did leave UNC and headed for UCSD), using his research to make coin at a hedge fund. I spent a whole chapter in Tradestreaming (my book) describing co-lateral research — stuff that’s inherently non-financial in nature (Google search, Amazon ratings, etc) to help us make better investing choices.

Now a new paper shines light on how Google search reflects investor information demand and what that means for earnings news.

Continue reading “Using Google to forecast an earnings pop (or plunk)”

[free ebook] The Harvard Guide to Insider Trading

Insider trading (talking about legal insider trading, of course) typically beats the stock market by 10% — per year.

For those of you who’ve been following Tradestreaming for the past couple of years (and read my book), you know that I’m a fan of following the smart money.

By following the tradestream of hedge funds or the activity of corporate insiders, investors can create portfolios  and strategies that have at least been proven in the literature to make money.

Insider trading is a treasure-trove of potentially-profitable information. Top managers at their firms are in the best seats to determine the future prospects for their stocks. If they reach into their wallets and buy their firms’ stocks, well, that’s an incredible useful signal.

An insider trading blueprint

There’s been some amazing research into insider trading. Recent studies have found that investors can mimic the returns of insiders to beat the market by 7 – 10% a year.

I wrote the 20+ page, The Harvard Guide to Insider Trading to describe these strategies and provide a quick blueprint to create portfolios comprised of the most useful insider trading.

AND, to teach you how to use insider trading strategies for your own trading/investing.

You can download it freely here.

I hope you like it — let me know (via email or in the comments) what you think.

How to beat Wall Street by using Facebook, reading tabloids and shopping – with Chris Camillo

Chris Camillo isn’t a professional investor but he know how to invest.

book by Chris CamilloHe turned $20,000 into over $2,000,000 by shopping at the mall, connecting on Facebook, and reading tabloids. Without even looking at a balance sheet or income statement, Chris takes big bets on trends he believes others aren’t aware of.

Then he heads to Facebook to validate his ideas with his social network.

He tells all in a new book, Laughing at Wall Street:  How I Beat the Pros at Investing (by Reading Tabloids, Shopping at the Mall, and Connecting on Facebook) and How You Can, Too

Join Chris and me as we discuss his investment philosophy, how it works, and why he believes it’s a better way to invest.

Continue reading “How to beat Wall Street by using Facebook, reading tabloids and shopping – with Chris Camillo”

How to invest in emerging markets as a foreigner [free ebook]

How does a foreigner invest in some of the most compelling emerging markets in Asia and the Middle East?   Which geographies should investors be looking seriously at?

I don’t know — but Saudi Price Alaweed does.  And recent guest on Tradestreaming, Jeff Towson does. See my interview with Towson here and here.

He’s also written a book about global investing, What Would Ben Graham Do Now: A New Value Investing Playbook for a Global Age.

He was head of direct investments in the Middle East and Pacific for Alaweed’s barebones (staff of 2 or 3 people), multi-billion dollar, global investment machine.

The Tradestreaming global investing ebook

Continue reading “How to invest in emerging markets as a foreigner [free ebook]”

How Saudi Prince Waleed invested globally and grew $30k to $22B — with Jeffrey Towson (transcript)

tradestream radio, discussing investing and technology

On Tradestreaming Radio, we’re interviewing lots of innovative entrepreneurs, investors, and researchers all trying to make investors better at what they do. Check out our archives. Subscribe on iTunes. The podcast itself can be heard in its entirety here.

Transcript purchased from SpeechPad

Announcer: Live from the Internet, it’s Tradestreaming Radio, with your host, Tradestreaming.com’s own Zack Miller.

Zack: Hey, this is Zack Miller and you’re listening to Tradestreaming Radio, our place on the Internet where investors learn directly from experts. We’ve got a great show today. We’ve got Jeffrey Towson, the author of “What Would Benjamin Graham Do Now?” Towson was Head of Direct Investments, Asia Pacific and Middle East for Prince Waleed of Saudi Arabia, who is the world’s fourth wealthiest person. He manages a portfolio of over $22 billion, and Towson worked for him for many years, having grown up in the States. Lived overseas and was very much involved in direct investments, buying up properties, investing directly into companies.

His book is a really interesting take, because for many years, obviously, U.S. investors have recognized that there is the rest of the world, and it’s getting more and more interesting. Unfortunately, the way we do it is somewhat, according to Towson, very contorted. Buying a multinational that has exposure to the Middle East is one way to play this game, but obviously not the best. So, in his book, he lays out sort of a framework for investors of any sort, whether they’re retirement investors or professional investors, private equity guys, hedge fund managers, who really want to understand and learn from a framework of how to do business in the Far East. He lays it out in this book.

It’s a very good book. The book, in fact, is probably more suited for the classroom, but it was a very informative read. Lots of interesting anecdotes, and to me, the most interesting thing about the entire enterprise is how Waleed grew his business from a $30,000 loan from his father into a $22 billion investment portfolio, really with two or three staff. It’s a bare bones operation, yet he has his hands in investments all over the world. Being able to understand that model, to me, was really one of the most interesting takeaways from this book. Continue reading “How Saudi Prince Waleed invested globally and grew $30k to $22B — with Jeffrey Towson (transcript)”

How Saudi Prince Waleed invested globally and grew $30k to $22B — with Jeffrey Towson (podcast)

building an investing empire

Saudi’s Prince Waleed took $30k and investing globally, turned it into $22 billion — all with staff of only 2 or 3.

by Jeff Towson

He was able to accomplish this by applying a framework to invest globally. Like Buffett, Waleed is a value investor. But the similarities end there — Waleed is a deal maker, on the prowl to see where he can add value and how.

In this podcast, we’re joined by Jeff Towson, who was Head of Direct Investments Middle East/North Africa and Asia Pacific for Waleed** for almost 10 years. He’s written a new book describing the Waleed model, What Would Ben Graham Do Now: A New Value Investing Playbook for a Global Age. He explores the essential question of our day: how does a foreigner properly invest in emerging markets? Continue reading “How Saudi Prince Waleed invested globally and grew $30k to $22B — with Jeffrey Towson (podcast)”