5 trends we’re watching this week

5 trends in finance this week

[alert type=yellow ]Every week at Tradestreaming, we’re tracking and analyzing the top trends impacting the finance industry. The following is a list of important things going on we think are worth paying attention to. For more in depth trendfollowing, subscribe to Tradestreaming’s newsletter .[/alert]

1. Goldman, JPMorgan Seen as Fintech Winners While AmEx Suffers (Bloomberg)
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan will probably benefit most from the coming wave of financial technology disruption, rather than being supplanted by startups driving the change, according to a new survey.

2. 2015 Automated Platform Performance Review: Betterment vs. Wealthfront (Meb Faber)
Meb Faber with some good analysis on how Betterment performed this year vs. Wealthfront (and where Schwab and Vanguard come in). Hint: roboadvisors are neither “safe” nor are they one-size-fits-all.

3. Inside J.P. Morgan’s Deal With On Deck Capital (WSJ)
As part of the deal, OnDeck won’t put up any capital and will get fees to originate and service loans for J.P. Morgan, many with a value up to $250,000, previously considered too small to move the needle at the big bank. OnDeck also can use data it gleans from the partnership to improve its lending models. “We think it’s a watershed partnership,” said OnDeck CEO Noah Breslow.

4. Microinsurance Is The Answer To The Insurance Industry (TechCrunch)
In the wake of Lemonade’s giant seed round, the tech industry is buzzing thinking about the potential of disrupting insurance. Whether it’s peer to peer models or microinsurance, Silicon Valley is coming.

5. Nasdaq Linq Enables First-Ever Private Securities Issuance Documented With Blockchain Technology (Nasdaq)
Transaction by Chain.com Marks Significant ‘Proof of Concept’ and Major Step Forward in Use of Blockchain. Blockchain Holds Potential for 99%.

With SecondMarket acquisition, Nasdaq moves closer to liquidifying private shares market

with secondmarket, nasdaq investing in private share transactions

Nasdaq (NDAQ: NSQ) announced that it would acquire private transaction platform, SecondMarket. Founded in 2004, SecondMarket was the 2nd most active private tender market in the US. The company’s primary business is providing liquidity for employees in private companies to conduct private tenders to sell their shares, while providing their employers control over the frequency of the process and who gets to buy/sell shares.

Public markets cooling, hot private markets

[x_pullquote type=”right”]In 2014, there were 211 $40M+ growth rounds – just about one per day. In contrast, there were 15 US IT venture-backed IPOs with offerings greater than $40M last year, slightly more one IPO per month in 2014.[/x_pullquote]This acquisition comes amid a tepid market for tech IPOs. Public tech listings have fallen this year to the lowest point they’ve been in 6 years. Indeed, private companies are raising massive amounts of capital from private sources. Tomasz Tunguz, a venture capitalist, did the math on public/private markets disparity and it’s staggering.

There are a variety of factors behind the drop in successful tech companies deciding to publicly float their shares. Jeremy Kopelman of First Round Capital calls this the “private IPO phenomenon“.

According to the venture capitalist:

In my opinion, there isn’t nearly enough focus on “low frequency trading.” Public companies reprice daily. Private companies don’t have to reprice for years on end.

One key benefit of low-frequency trading in private companies is a long-term focus. It removes arbitrary time constraints on growth and profits. By relying on private financing events as “comps,” we risk pricing new financings (and creating new unicorns) based on stale valuations.

With public transactions cooling, Nasdaq has made it clear the exchange is looking for more growthy markets. Nasdaq established a partnership with SecondMarket’s larger competitor, SharesPost, in 2013. The partnership, called Nasdaq Private Market, never really found a lot of traction and Nasdaq reported it would be buying out SharesPost’s stake in the venture.

With the run-up in funding rounds and valuations on the private market, many companies are turning to tender offers to allow employees to take some cash off the table in a controlled manner, set and managed by the company.

“As companies extend their pre-IPO lives, they face increasing pressure to provide liquidity to employees and early investors,” said Bill Siegel, CEO of SecondMarket. “Our combined offering strives to give private companies a comprehensive, company-controlled solution to attract and retain talent, while also providing tools to effectively manage their equity ownership and secondary liquidity for their employees and shareholders.”

facebook trades in private shares

SecondMarket and SharesPost both saw their businesses enter a growth period as Facebook ramped up its business on the social network’s path to IPO.  Facebook was not only a driver but it was a huge percentage of the private stockmarkets’ business. After Facebook went public, SecondMarket decided to focus not on one-off transactions but more on the tender offer process, which companies lead and control.

SecondMarket has facilitated over 70 tender offer programs and processed over $2.5 billion in transaction volume. Another player in the market, startup EquityZen is competing over similar business and currently has close to $30 million of private stock available for sale on the platform. The advent of equity crowdfunding was also seen as a way for startups and private companies to conduct “private IPOs” and sell stock to the general public. True openness hasn’t happened because of concerns over existing regulation and a reticence by companies to partake of the new frameworks created by the JOBS Act of 2012 and Regulation A+.

Regardless of how this plays out, Nasdaq is positioning itself to play a major role in the trading of private company shares.

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Stock markets continue to lose share to private exchanges

Institutional investors with large blocks of shares to sell don’t just open up an account at E*Trade and dump them into the market.  Doing so tips their hands and astute short sellers can hop a ride on stocks being disposed, making money along the way and reducing profits for the institutional seller.

Conversely, if an institution wants to accumulate shares in a relatively thinly traded stock, they can’t go out to a retail stock broker and say, “Hey buddy, get me 10 million shares of that hot new small cap tech stock.”  Doing so would cause the price to rise just by announcing such intentions.

How Institutional Investors Trade

To handle insitutional volumes of stock trading, traders do the following

  1. VWAP: Some traders will program trading software to purchase a maximum % of volume on given days (called VWAP or Volume Weighted Average Price).
  2. Smaller trades at various brokers: Sometimes traders will parcel out trades to multiple brokers to mask the fact that a large number of shares are being traded by one institution.
  3. Dark pools: And sometimes, when there is really an impetus to sell/buy a large chunk of stock, traders will go to their brokers and ask them to cross a block of shares on the low — by not going too public with the info.  Execution speed is paramount here and the action is as much in the data centers in New Jersey as it is on Wall Street.  These dark pools now account for 1 in 3 shares of stocks traded according to the Wall Street Journal.

In ‘Dark Pools’ Pick up Stock Trading Share, the WSJ takes aim at the rise in these dark pools.

The rise of so-called dark pools and other off-exchange strategies aimed at large banks and institutional traders comes as regulators on both sides of the Atlantic grapple with balancing the market efficiencies the alternative venues say they generate with the impact on individual investors.

Private venues are seen as a more efficient way for transacting large chunks of shares, but critics worry that if so much trading is done privately, publicly available prices set by exchanges will become less accurate. Dark pools are electronic platforms designed for institutions to carry out major stock trades anonymously.

Varying forces

Having 30% of trading beyond the veil of regulators and common investors creates a tiered trading system, something inherently seen as unfair and anti-competitive.  The emergence of internal stock trading platforms like powerhouse BlackRock recently announced are not new, they’re just taking on more volume and therefore, importance.  In general, we’re witnessing the rise of the machines and algorithmic trading which is the purest combination of technology and investing.  The stock exchanges like NASDAQ OMX ($NDAQ) and NYSE Euronext ($NYX) are pleading and crying to regulators to help right this wrong.

Beyond the histrionics, the stock exchanges are also developing technology to help lure institutions back to their platforms.  The NASDAQ OMX CEO was on Forbes recently touting the work they’ve done on PSX, an exchange that doesn’t give preference only to speed but also to size of trades.  This platform has already demonstrated its ability to bring many of the institutional trades happening offline, back online.

As Felix Salmon said in Wired, “In the wake of the flash crash, Mary Schapiro, chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, publicly mused that humans may need to wrest some control back from the machines.”

‘Automated trading systems will follow their coded logic regardless of outcome while human involvement likely would have prevented these orders from executing at absurd prices.’

Giving up control to the computers is not really what’s at stake here.  Computer trading just reflects the rules-based logic entered by the humans who program the algos.  Rather, it’s the essential bifurcation of the markets: one for pros and one for the rest of us.  It’s the unleveling of the playing field at stake here that should have everyone concerned.

Source:

Dark Pools Pick up Stock Trading Share (WSJ)

Algorithms take control of Wall Street (Wired)

BlackRock to launch trading platform (FT.com)

photo courtesy of tenaciousme