Mistake-driven learning and the investment process

If done correctly, investing is an iterative process. One that is experienced. Obviously, if one puts everything he owns into a high-flying cloud technology stock and blows himself out, that process is stunted. Part of being an investor is playing defensively enough to continue building on past wins.

I recently had the chance to sit down with Stephen Weiss, author of Billion Dollar Mistake: Learning the Art of Investing Through the Missteps of Legendary Investors and a very experienced executive on Wall Street.  Here’s what he shared about learning from mistakes:

What do you learn more from looking at mistakes than maybe looking at successful trades?

Weiss: Well, what I found through my career and observing others is that the best investors I ever got to know, the one’s I covered through my career, and I think I have covered a hall of fame of investment professionals, was that they spent more time dissecting their mistakes so they wouldn’t repeat them, than dissecting the victories, the winning investments. They seem to resonate more, and they are much more aggravating. When you make money on stock, or on an investment theme, you pat yourself on the back and say, “OK, let’s move on.”

You do have your discipline, and you follow that discipline, but when you make a mistake it really resonates because it has cost you money. And whether it’s blow to your ego, or a blow to your wallet, generally it’s both, you want to make sure you don’t do it again. It’s, “How can I be so stupid? How did I do that?” If you can keep that mental list, or in some cases, like I do a written checklist, and say, “You know what? I’m not going to do that again, I found it’s made me money by not costing me money.”

I think that’s so interesting, so insightful. As I was reading through the book, and I was thinking about the approach, a lot of times, successful trades, it’s unclear whether they are based on skill or on luck, you know? But at least with a losing trade, you now have an opportunity to say, “Hey, what went wrong? How could I have been more skillful in that trade?”

Weiss: Yeah. Absolutely right, and mistakes, if you can take the mistakes out of your process, you do well. It’s no different than we just saw in the Super Bowl. So, guess what? The team that won made fewer mistakes. Steelers turned it over, interceptions, fumbles. Green Bay was mistake free, essentially, so they came out on top. I don’t think it’s any different in investing.

Read the whole transcript/listen to the interview.

Learning from hedge funds’ billion dollar mistakes (podcast)

In this week’s episode of Tradestreaming Radio, we interview Stephen Weiss, author of the newish book, Billion Dollar Mistake: Learning the Art of Investing Through the Missteps of Legendary Investors. You can also find a full transcript of the show here.

Weiss had a long-spanning career on Wall Street (Oppenheimer, Salomon, Lehman) where he covered many of the top hedge funds and even spent part of his career helping run Stevie Cohen’s SAC Capital.  He took some great insights and made them even more interesting: by focusing on the mistakes top investors have made.

We discuss:

  • Why mistakes are better learning experiences for investors than winners
  • Why passion is not an investment strategy and why Kirk Kerkorian loved American cars too much
  • How Omega Advisor’s Leon Cooperman plays and manages risk in emerging markets
  • Why Bill Ackman made loot on Barnes and Noble ($BKS) but lost a ton on Borders ($BGP)
  • How these takeaways are applicable to individual investors

I really enjoyed this discussion with Weiss not only because it was an interesting view into the investing patterns of the world’s best investors but he’s distilled his experiences into a real discipline.

One really compelling insight I think we can all take away from The Billion Dollar Mistake is that it’s hard to discern whether successful trades were skillful or just lucky.  Trading losses provide an opportunity for investors to reckon their processes.

More Resources

Learn more about the book and Stephen Weiss

Crowdsourcing vs. Piggybacking: An ongoing debate

Just returned from a mini-tour for Tradestreaming which ended with an editorial of mine appearing on CNNMoney.

CNN’s editors thought the tension between investing alongside guru investors (what I call, piggybacking) and following the crowd (which devalues individual expertise) was worth exploring (in 800 words or less).  It was a great topic and one that I didn’t give enough verbiage to in the book.

Part of this was laziness, part of it was in effort to keep the text short, and part of it was that crowdsourcing investment ideas is still really in its infancy.  While we can essentially clone hedge fund portfolios (with great tools like AlphaClone or great resources like MarketFolly), crowdsourcing tools are still finding their footing (I like Piqqem).

Here’s the crux of the matter:

So while it’s premature to say whether crowdsourcing can act as a standalone strategy, it may make sense for investors to tap the wisdom of the masses in addition to the other strategies they use to generate investment ideas.

The Internet and social media are truly changing the way we acquire information, research investments, and manage our portfolios. The playing field is more level than it’s ever been, and that’s a good thing. Happy tradestreaming.

You can read the whole article on CNNMoney , Follow the smart money — and the crowd

Photo courtesy of futureshape